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Rare Steal always fail?

#1
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Stealing Brachosaur ribbon is 1/8 chance, but sometime especially in the coliseum, no matter how long it take (fast forward button help a lots), I can never steal it. Why is that? I don't think it just dumb luck, bec fast forward a very long time using Gau max Def+ MeritA+ Thief Knife+ Offering.

If the rare steal formula is very rigged, then is there a patch that can fix this?

Later:
Ah! I think I discover why it failed. I think using a rage that use Special Attack status that Brachosaur is immune to, will always fail. Either this is a glitch, or the quote "Couldn't steal!!" just mislead me. Otherwise, something is rigged that a simple Lobo Rage sometime failed to steal.
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#2
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Lobo's Special Attack is damage+50%, so unless you changed this, Brachosaur cannot be immune to a simple damaging special. Another possibility to consider is level disparities. If your thief isn't at least level 28, they cannot Steal from a level 77 Brachosaur, because they will be at least 50 levels under the target's level. Furthermore, if your level is very close to level 28, it may be possible to Steal in theory, but not in practice, since the RNG function that FFVI uses is rather limited, and none of the 256 "RNG sequences" that can be called will successfully pass the 50% ThiefKnife steal, and then the ~1% chance of successfully stealing, and then the ~12.5% chance of targeting the rare slot all at once.


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(04-24-2022, 10:48 AM)Cecil188 Wrote: Lobo's Special Attack is damage+50%, so unless you changed this, Brachosaur cannot be immune to a simple damaging special. Another possibility to consider is level disparities. If your thief isn't at least level 28, they cannot Steal from a level 77 Brachosaur, because they will be at least 50 levels under the target's level. Furthermore, if your level is very close to level 28, it may be possible to Steal in theory, but not in practice, since the RNG function that FFVI uses is rather limited, and none of the 256 "RNG sequences" that can be called will successfully pass the 50% ThiefKnife steal, and then the ~1% chance of successfully stealing, and then the ~12.5% chance of targeting the rare slot all at once.

I didn't said Lobo Special fail. I said status that Bracho immune to fail. I mentioned Lobo bec I tested this too, but some battle just always fail to steal. So this lead me to conclude that the stealing formula is rigged. My party Level is 39, so I can always steal, no matter how little. But I think this is only for common steal, not rare steal as that one is fixed at 1/8 chance (I think).
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The rare steal simply has a 1/8 chance of being picked when a Steal is successful, as opposed to the common Steal, which has a 7/8 chance of being picked. Regarding the fact that the Lobo special doesn't fail, that's the point. If a perfectly viable Special still fails to Steal, then there must be a cause that isn't related to the Special attack itself. In this case, a level 39 thief in this circumstance looks to have about a 1/8 chance of having all possible RNG sequences fail against a level 77 target.


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(04-24-2022, 11:05 AM)Cecil188 Wrote: The rare steal simply has a 1/8 chance of being picked when a Steal is successful, as opposed to the common Steal, which has a 7/8 chance of being picked. Regarding the fact that the Lobo special doesn't fail, that's the point. If a perfectly viable Special still fails to Steal, then there must be a cause that isn't related to the Special attack itself. In this case, a level 39 thief in this circumstance looks to have about a 1/8 chance of having all possible RNG sequences fail against a level 77 target.

That's the thing I said it is likely rigged. The steal formula I mean, or some hidden formula we missed. Brachosaur LV77 has 46050 HP against my LV39 Gau. So that's 12% [39+50-77] without any Sneak Ring. Dealing around 250 damage backrow using Lobo rage with Offering, this would mean I need about 185 attacks to beat it. Since Thief Knife is 50-50 chance to steal, so let said 93 steal attempt to steal rare Ribbon. With this much chance I should had stolen Ribbon, but some battle I just didn't, and that make no sense. If it rarely happen, fine. But this is common enough (feel like 50-50 chance) that I will always fail to steal no matter what.

I could misunderstood all this time. If that steal formula is correct, then maybe there is a follow up in rare steal in that 12% divided by 1/8 for 1.5% per steal attempt. However, in some battle the first 10 attempt will get the rare steal if it wasn't part of my feeling in 50-50 of the time. Something is wrong. I don't know what, but my experience said so.
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If that's the case, that all seems reasonable and unrigged. 50% to proc Capture*12%chance to pass the level check*12.5% chance to target the rare Slot means that altogether, you have a 0.75% chance to Steal on each *hit.* Which means you have a 99.25% chance of failing to Steal on each hit. This gives a chance of 0.9925^185=~0.25, or about a 25% chance, of failing to Steal across all 185 attempts. *But* that assumes that we're talking about a theoretical proper RNG function. Since we're working with such slim odds, it's possible that in practice, only 1 RNG sequence out of 256 actually works here. If that is indeed the case, then (255/256)^185=0.484, or a 48.4% chance of failing to Steal across all 185 Steal attempts, which is close to the 50/50 that you've reported.

TL;DR: Steal is absolutely fine and understood; this phenomenon occurs because of two factors. One is that people are not good at estimating probabilities. The other is that FFVI's RNG function is pretty bad.


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(04-24-2022, 11:28 AM)Cecil188 Wrote: TL;DR: Steal is absolutely fine and understood; this phenomenon occurs because of two factors. One is that people are not good at estimating probabilities. The other is that FFVI's RNG function is pretty bad.

Both are correct. Though I would go with the latter one more likely because there are plenty of FFVI formula that are just bad. Like Evasion vs Hit Rate.
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